[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay
hamsat at xs4all.nl
Sat Dec 31 06:46:33 PST 2011
My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.
Happy New Year to all!
On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:
> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
> activity really increase before the end of December,
> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
> days earlier.
> Nico PA0DLO
> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
>> Nico PA0DLO
>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
>>> there have not been any magnetic storms.
>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
>>> sensible predictions.
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>>>> develops in the coming weeks.
>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>>>> Nico PA0DLO
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