[amsat-bb] Orbit Decay - SatPC32, Calsky, DK3WN/N8MH, Orbitron

Thomas Doyle tomdoyle1948 at gmail.com
Mon Jun 2 13:31:53 UTC 2014

Thanks Erich.

On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 3:46 AM, Erich Eichmann <erich.eichmann at t-online.de>

> Hello Tom,
> the program WinAOS gives you a quick overview of the satellite passes in
> the near future.
> The program is not designed for long term calculations. It doesn't use the
> SGP4/SDP4 model as SatPC32 and WinListen do but uses rather simple
> calculation routines. Therefore use WinListen or the "Preview" function of
> SatPC32 for more precise calculations.
> 73s, Erich, DK1TB
> Am 02.06.2014 00:10, schrieb Thomas Doyle:
>> Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan  a while
>> back.
>> I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an
>> example.
>> My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014.
>> I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.
>> On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running
>> well into 2084.
>> I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.
>> Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only
>> 109km.
>> I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the
>> point
>> of no return.
>> Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days
>> Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.
>> DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014
>> This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an
>> editor
>> on this site it is probably the closest.
>> With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide
>> interesting subjects for decay predictions
>> and possible Chicken Little contests.
>> Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or
>> are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?
>> 73 W9KE Tom Doyle
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Sent from my computer.

tom ...

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