[amsat-bb] Orbit Decay - SatPC32, Calsky, DK3WN/N8MH, Orbitron

Thomas Doyle tomdoyle1948 at gmail.com
Sun Jun 1 22:10:54 UTC 2014

Some of you may remember the Chicken Little Contest run by Alan  a while
I have taken another look at decay using the XATCOBEO satellite as an

My first try at a program calculated the decay in early June 2014.
I am all but positive this is several weeks too soon.

On the other end of the spectrum SatPC32/WinAOS shows it up and running
well into 2084.
I am as positive as I can be that this is many decades too late.

Orbitron shows it still running on Sept 8 2014 but at an altitude of only
I believe this is a bit late as 160km is usually considered to be the point
of no return.

Calsky predicts decay on 14 August 2014 with a +/- of 15 days
Smart guy to hedge his bets with the +/- range.

DK3WN predicts decay on 31 July 2014
This falls into the +/- range of Calsky and since our own N8MH is an editor
on this site it is probably the closest.

With LEO satellites rapidly becoming as common as iPads they provide
interesting subjects for decay predictions
and possible Chicken Little contests.

Is there any formal definition/announcement of the actual decay or
are satellites like old soldiers and just fade away ?

73 W9KE Tom Doyle

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