[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

Nico Janssen hamsat at xs4all.nl
Sun Dec 11 06:24:06 PST 2011


Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.


On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
> there have not been any magnetic storms.
> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
> sensible predictions.
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Hi,
>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>> develops in the coming weeks.
>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
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