[amsat-bb] Re: ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
hamoen at iae.nl
Tue Dec 18 22:41:40 PST 2007
In that case we will really this as the most likely time of de-orbit.
... only 4 days left for some final QSOs.
> Hi Henk and all!
> Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph. The problem with re-entry predictions is most treat
> it as a linear decay when in reality it's logarithmic. It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses.
> Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's mass and surface area, time is running
> out and fast. At 90 miles heating is increasing dramatically. Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered,
> depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time. Remember, at solar maximum the atmoshere is much thicker
> due to the increase of the solar activity. It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum, ANDE
> would have been history by now.
> Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in 2nd place in the Chicken Little contest
> in predicting the re-entry of the satellite Solar Max. I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of
> Jeff WB3JFS
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Henk, PA3GUO" <hamoen at iae.nl>
> To: <amsat-bb at amsat.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
> Hi Jeff,
> That's an extreme accurate prediction !
> Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the graph' !
> How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
> 73 - Henk, PA3GUO
>> In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry prediction for ANDE is:
>> December 22, 2007 1935z.
>> Jeff WB3JFS
>>>>From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
>>> (based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it
>>> had reached 175 km).
>>> Henk, PA3GUO
More information about the AMSAT-BB